Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull? Key reasons behind rumours of a switch to Mercedes or Aston Martin

As Formula One heads into a transformative era in 2026, speculation is mounting around Max Verstappen’s future with Red Bull Racing. Although contracted until 2028, several developments — from team instability to strategic openings at Mercedes and Aston Martin — have sparked intense debate over whether the reigning World Champion could make a shocking team switch.

Red Bull Racing Turmoil: Internal Issues Fuel Exit Rumours

Despite years of dominance, Red Bull Racing is showing cracks in its foundation. The departure of legendary designer Adrian Newey and ongoing tensions between Christian Horner and Helmut Marko have created a less-than-stable environment. Verstappen’s loyalty to Helmut and the potential exit clause tied to his role, could serve as a major turning point.

To compound this, Max has publicly criticised the RB21’s performance, labelling it “undriveable” at the Chinese Grand Prix. Inconsistencies in development and internal crisis meetings have only intensified the spotlight on the team’s uncertain trajectory.

Honda’s Exit and Engine Uncertainty at Red Bull

Red Bull's engine partner Honda has confirmed its exit from the team by 2026, choosing instead to align with Aston Martin. This leaves Red Bull reliant on its new partnership with Ford, which remains untested in the current F1 hybrid era. Verstappen, known for his focus on performance and reliability, may view this shift as a gamble — prompting a potential exit.

Aston Martin, backed by Honda’s factory power units and a ballooning technical roster, is quickly becoming an increasingly attractive destination for elite drivers. Most notably, Adrian Newey — the legendary designer behind Red Bull’s dominant cars — is rumoured to be heading to Aston Martin, a move that would significantly strengthen the Silverstone-based outfit’s engineering credibility. Combined with heavy investment in infrastructure, including a state-of-the-art new factory and wind tunnel, Aston Martin appears poised to challenge for titles in the upcoming regulation cycle.

Why Mercedes Could Be Verstappen’s Next F1 Team

Mercedes stands out as the most viable destination for Verstappen should he depart Red Bull. Following Lewis Hamilton’s surprise move to Ferrari for 2025, a coveted seat has opened up. Toto Wolff has made no secret of his admiration for Verstappen, calling him a “remarkable talent” and leaving the door wide open for a possible deal.

Although Mercedes is set to promote rising star Andrea Kimi Antonelli, George Russell’s contract is due to expire at the end of 2025 and remains unrenewed — an ideal window for Verstappen’s arrival.

How 2026 F1 Regulations and Mercedes Upgrades Could Influence Max

The upcoming 2026 Formula One regulations — involving major aerodynamic and power unit overhauls — present another reason Max might jump ship. Mercedes is heavily investing in these new systems, with insiders suggesting a possible leap in performance.

With top-tier facilities in Brackley and Brixworth, Mercedes could offer the consistency and competitiveness Verstappen craves, especially compared to Red Bull’s uncertain Ford-powered future.

Will Buxton and Experts Weigh In on Max’s Possible Move

Renowned F1 commentator Will Buxton has lent credibility to the speculation, suggesting Max Verstappen’s next move could be shaped by both internal frustrations and championship ambitions. Buxton notes Max as a long-term thinker who won’t hesitate to walk if performance or harmony falters.

Off-track controversies at Red Bull — including high-profile investigations and leadership tension — only add to the reasons Verstappen might reassess his loyalty.