Is Red Bull’s driver swap dilemma a desperate performance fix or a smokescreen?

Red Bull Racing has long been notorious for its ruthless driver swap strategy, a practice that has shaped its reputation just as much as its on-track dominance. However, with reports speculating yet another shake-up following Liam Lawson’s lackluster start to the 2025 season, a critical question arises: Is Red Bull’s constant driver swapping a performance-driven necessity or is it a convenient distraction from deeper issues within the team and its machinery?

Red Bull’s track record in handling its driver lineup is a compelling mix of opportunity and cutthroat decision-making. Since Daniel Ricciardo’s departure at the end of 2018, the team has cycled through multiple second-seat drivers in search of the perfect partner for champion Max Verstappen. In 2019, Pierre Gasly struggled in the senior team and was swiftly demoted mid-season. In the same year, Alexander Albon was promoted but later dropped for 2021. In 2021, Sergio Pérez was brought in survived the longest among the three and yet he was reportedly axed for 2025.

On the junior F1 team’s side (formerly Toro Rosso, AlphaTauri and now Visa Cash App RB), Red Bull has made even more dramatic swaps, including Nyck de Vries’ mid-season departure and Daniel Ricciardo’s return in 2023. This pattern of quick judgments and ruthless demotions raises questions about whether performance is the only driving factor behind these decisions.

Liam Lawson’s promotion to Red Bull was already controversial, given that Yuki Tsunoda — who had been steadily improving — was left out of the equation. Yuki on the other hand is still hopeful and has stated to press that he is still dreaming of the Redbull seat. Two race weekends into the season and Liam is yet to find his rhythm, with multiple Q1 exits and a costly DNF at the Australian Grand Prix.

Yet, one cannot ignore the elephant in the room: Red Bull’s RB21 challenger. While Verstappen continues to extract strong results, the team’s second car seems increasingly unforgiving to drivers not named Max. We have heard, Red Bull team principal Christian Horner stating that their development errors stemmed from a 2023 underbody upgrade in Barcelona, which the team didn't address seriously because Max Verstappen continued to win races despite the issues. Lawson’s struggles mirror the difficulties Gasly and Albon faced — suggesting that rather than a driver problem, Red Bull might have a fundamental issue with their car.

For any driver joining Red Bull’s senior team, the pressure is immense. The second seat next to Verstappen has become the sport’s most high-risk position, with every new recruit expected to match a three-time world champion in equal machinery. The likes of Gasly, Albon and Pérez have all struggled under this burden. Lawson is now experiencing the same challenge, while Yuki Tsunoda thrives at the junior team (a similar instance that triggered previous swaps with Gasly and Albon when they performed well as juniors).

What’s Next for Red Bull and Liam Lawson?

With the Chinese GP providing little reassurance for Liam’s prospects, Red Bull’s patience will be tested. While it is still early in the season, their past decisions suggest that if results don’t improve soon, a replacement could already be lined up. Could Yuki Tsunoda get his long-awaited call-up? Or does Ricciardo stand another chance? Will someone entirely new appear to swoop the seat away, we wait to find out.