2025 Formula One math: Only four drivers remain in contention for title

The 2025 Formula One, also the 75th, season so far has been a well-deserved tribute to the spirit and the unexpected turns of event, what this motorsport is all about! This is an exciting moment, especially with the dramatic USGP Sprint results! With McLaren having claimed a dominant win as Constructors, results for the Driver's Championship is now eagerly awaited.

Based on the standings after the US Grand Prix Sprint (Round 19 of 24), and with 6 Grand Prix weekends remaining (including the main USGP race and two sprint races), here is the numerical breakdown of the championship battle. Maximum points in a Grand Prix Race Winner is 25 points while the maximum points in a Sprint Race Winner is 8 points. So, the maximum points a driver can score in the remaining 6 weekends is 141 points by the end of this season.

Only drivers whose current points plus the maximum remaining points exceed the current leader's points can mathematically win the championship. To be a contender, a driver's Max Possible Final Points must be greater than or equal to the current leader's current points (336). Keeping that in mind, Charles Leclerc (177 + 141 = 318 points) is mathematically eliminated along with everyone ranking beaneath him on the grid.

Every point counts

Currently, Max Verstappen with 281 and George Russell with 244 are both mathematical contenders after the top 2 McLaren drivers. A driver needs to finish the season with a points total greater than the maximum possible score of the second-place contender.

Piastri needs to score at least 91 points in the remaining races to guarantee a total of 427 points. This is 5 points more than Verstappen's maximum (422), meaning Verstappen could not win even if he maxed out. Since Piastri is leading Norris, if he secures the title against Verstappen, he will also be ahead of Norris.

Test your luck

Norris needs to ensure his final score is higher than Piastri's final score and Verstappen's maximum of 422 points.To beat Piastri, he must score 23 more points than Piastri in the remaining races.To guarantee a beat of Verstappen, he needs to reach 423 points (423 - 314 = 109). Norris needs to score 109 points to guarantee the title against all current contenders.

Verstappen needs to score at least 142 points. Since the maximum points available is 141, Verstappen cannot guarantee the championship, even if he wins every single point available. He must rely on Piastri and Norris scoring fewer than 87 and 109 points, respectively.

McLaren's chance of losing the Drivers' Championship is significant but unlikely, as the two McLaren drivers are each other's biggest threat. The biggest threat to McLaren is Max Verstappen, who is only 55 points behind the leader, Piastri. However, the chaos of the USGP Sprint (both DNFs) highlights that mechanical issues or incidents could make this mathematically possible.

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