A conflict in Ukraine can impact India in many ways. It will test our diplomacy. We have now burgeoning ties with America, even as we preserve our close relations with Russia. Our larger national interests require us to maintain balanced ties with both. We have to view Russia also from the perspective of a multipolar world, a reformed international order and adherence to core principles of international governance enshrined in the UN Charter.
Ties between America and Russia have deteriorated very sharply in recent years. The US has imposed severe economic sanctions on Russia, of which Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) impinges on our defence ties with Moscow.
Washington has already announced that draconian sanctions will be imposed on Russia in case it invades Ukraine. This may generate more CAATSA pressure on us not only on the S-400 purchase but other significant future defence deals.
The new sanctions could exclude Russia from the Swift payments system. We have had to already devise special financial arrangements to pay for acquisitions from Russia, but this will become more difficult with more stringent financial sanctions. Our investment plans in Russia’s energy sector and in the development of its Far East, in general, would become problematic, especially by the reluctance of the private sector to fall afoul of the complex US sanctions.
So far India has steered a middle course on Ukraine. In our recent statement in the UN Security Council, we have emphasised dialogue, a peaceful solution, the role of the Normandy format and the Minsk Agreements in that regard, and recognition of the legitimate security interests of all sides. If an actual conflict erupts, this balanced position will come under real stress. The West will lecture us against sitting on the fence deriving from our persisting non-aligned mindset.
The US, NATO and EU narrative is that Russia has provoked this crisis by massing more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders, whereas, objectively, this crisis results from US, NATO and the EU policies towards a post-Soviet weakened Russia, the disregard of Russian protests and red lines on NATO expansion, till Putin has now decided that if the West will not heed his political appeals he will force them to acknowledge his vital interests through a show of force.
The steady deterioration of US-Russia ties and the Ukraine crisis has pushed Russia closer to China. In the UN Security Council, China has backed Russia and called for respect for its legitimate security interests. China has again voiced strong support for Russia’s security interests and in return, Russia has supported China on Taiwan in the joint statement issued after the Putin-Xi summit at the Winter Games. Additional US sanctions on Russia will increase its dependence on China, which will be indirectly at our cost. Russia will need to accommodate China more in our region (Pakistan PM’s reported visit to Russia this month is an indicator), will increase China’s clout in the forums all three of us are together such as Russia-India-China dialogue, the SCO and BRICS.
Russia is already averse to the Indo-Pacific concept and the Quad as a revival of Cold War bloc politics and views them as being against its Asia-Pacific interests. Any Ukraine conflict and a resulting breakdown of Russia-West ties will strengthen Russian opposition to these concepts and forums which are binding us to the US. Our broader interests being clear, we will have to deftly handle the potential challenges. Russia, unlike the US, will not be unhappy if we rightly maintained a neutral stance on Ukraine as part of our strategic autonomy.
Kanwal Sibal is a former foreign secretary who served as India’s ambassador to Russia from 2004 to 2007.