It all comes down to the F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix yet again! Read predictions

TheAbu Dhabi Grand Prix 2025 is set for a historic three-way championship showdown between Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri, the first since 2010. According to the standings, Lando Norris (McLaren) currently sits at 408 points, Max Verstappen (Red Bull) at 396, and Oscar Piastri (McLaren) at 392 after the Qatar Grand Prix 2025.

Beating the odds

Lando Norris (The Leader) will have to drive his destiny. A podium finish (1st, 2nd or 3rd) guarantees him the World Championship, regardless of what the other two drivers do. But considering how the odds turned out to be during the last race at Qatar, hopefully we don't see a repeat of that or any faulty parts or new changes in the car that makes this last drive of the season one to forget.

Max Verstappen (The Challenger) has clearest path is to win the race and hope Norris finishes P4 or lower. If Verstappen finishes second, Norris needs to be P8 or worse. Oscar Piastri with the lowest amount of points must win the race and hope Norris finishes P6 or worse. If he finishes second, Lando Norris needs to be P10 or worse and Verstappen must miss the podium.

Will McLaren sacrifice Piastri?

All three drivers are tied on seven race wins this season, meaning Norris's edge on second-place finishes would be the tie-breaker if they end up on equal points. Given the permutations and recent form, the current consensus leans towards Lando Norris. He has the points lead and the easiest route: finish on the podium. His recent form, despite the Qatar setback, has been consistently strong.

The McLaren MCL39 has arguably been the fastest car over the second half of the season, excelling particularly in medium-speed corners. This pure pace advantage gives both McLaren drivers a strong chance to fight for the win. If Norris finds himself struggling, Piastri is positioned as an invaluable teammate. McLaren could potentially employ team orders to ensure Norris finishes ahead of Verstappen, maximizing their championship chances.

Why Lando has better chances?

The RB20 proved difficult to handle for much of the season, particularly in medium-speed corners, and subsequent upgrades failed to address the car's underlying limitations fully. Verstappen had to overcome a massive 104-point deficit from the midpoint of the season, a testament to his driving, but also to the car's early and mid-season struggles.

Norris lost a crucial haul of points due to a disqualification earlier in the season (Las Vegas GP, due to a skid block technical infringement), which had already brought his rivals closer before Qatar. Had he kept those points, he may have already wrapped up the title.

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